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by the announcement of inflation targeting in 1991 when estimating the effects of monetary policy. For instance, we find … that a 100-basis-point increase in our new shock series leads to a 1.0 per cent decrease in real GDP and a 0.4 per cent … fall in the price level, while not accounting for the break leads to a permanent decrease in real GDP and a price puzzle …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011777945
long run. In particular, we show that if monetary policy reacts aggressively to inflation, this supports a steady state … where inflation is close to the central bank's target. However, the same aggressive policy simultaneously favours the … inflation are lower and monetary policy is constrained by the effective lower bound. We discuss how fiscal policy can be used to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012546126
Existing literature documents that house prices respond to monetary policy surprises with a significant delay, taking years to reach their peak response. We present new evidence of a much faster response. We exploit information contained in listings for residential properties for sale in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013370483
Many explanations for the decline in real interest rates over the last 30 years point to the role that population aging or rising income inequality plays in increasing the long-run aggregate demand for assets. Notwithstanding the importance of such factors, the starting point of this paper is to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013482643
We provide a decomposition of nominal yields into real yields, expectations of future inflation and inflation risk … premiums when real bonds or inflation swaps are unavailable or unreliable due to their relative illiquidity. We combine nominal … yields with surveys of inflation forecasts within a no-arbitrage model where conditional expectations are latent but spanned …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009668398
We propose a portfolio-balance model of the yield curve in which inflation is determined through an interest rate rule … Taylor principle implies that short-term nominal rates are adjusted more than one for one in response to changes in inflation …, the real return on nominal bonds depends positively on inflation. In equilibrium, inflation increases when there is an …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012177988
This paper studies the welfare costs and the redistributive effects of inflation in the presence of idiosyncratic … money demand and the distribution of money holdings across households, and study the effects of inflation under the implied … inflation are on average 40% smaller compared to a complete markets, representative agent economy, and that inflation induces …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003711687
Most central banks effect changes to their target or policy rate in discrete increments (e.g., multiples of 0.25%) following public announcements on scheduled dates. Still, for most applications, researchers rely on the assumption that the policy rate changes linearly with economic conditions...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009728132
The market for central bank reserves is mainly over-the-counter and exhibits a core-periphery network structure. This paper develops a model of relationship lending in the unsecured interbank market. In equilibrium, a tiered lending network arises endogenously as banks choose to build...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011517056
Press releases announcing and explaining monetary policy decisions play a critical role in the communication strategy of central banks. Because of their market-moving potential, it is particularly important how they are drafted. Often, central banks start from the previous statement and update...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011517131