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long run. In particular, we show that if monetary policy reacts aggressively to inflation, this supports a steady state … where inflation is close to the central bank's target. However, the same aggressive policy simultaneously favours the … inflation are lower and monetary policy is constrained by the effective lower bound. We discuss how fiscal policy can be used to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012546126
Many studies have documented that daily realized volatility estimates based on intraday returns provide volatility forecasts that are superior to forecasts constructed from daily returns only. We investigate whether these forecasting improvements translate into economic value added. To do so we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009627514
In this paper, we present a novel method to extract the risk-neutral probability of default of a firm from American put option prices. Building on the idea of a default corridor proposed in Carr and Wu (2011), we derive a parsimonious closed-form formula for American put option prices from which...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012216226
Since the work of Doepke and Schneider (2006a) and Meh and Terajima (2008), we know that inflation causes major … same country. Two types of monetary policy, inflation targeting (IT) and price level targeting (PT), have very different … ; Inflation: costs and benefits ; Inflation targets ; Inflation and prices …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003773003
the expected inflation, even in a frictionless economy. The effects of maturity rebalancing on expected inflation in the … expected inflation and output through our novel risk transmission mechanism. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012670322
This paper studies the impact government expenditure has on inflation by examining an augmented Phillips curve implied …, Changes in government expenditure account for a substantial portion of inflation variations and provide new insights into the … "missing disinflation" puzzle, We also find that inflation and inflation expectations respond negatively to fiscal spending …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014288057
Under very general conditions, the total quadratic variation of a jump-diffusion process can be decomposed into diffusive volatility and squared jump variation. We use this result to develop a new option valuation model in which the underlying asset price exhibits volatility and jump intensity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011377837
Plain vanilla options have a single underlying asset and a single condition on the payoff at the expiration date. For this class of options, a well-known result of Duffie, Pan and Singleton (2000) shows how to invert the characteristic function to obtain a closed-form formula for their prices....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010489589
This paper provides a novel methodology for estimating option pricing models based on risk-neutral moments. We synthesize the distribution extracted from a panel of option prices and exploit linear relationships between risk-neutral cumulants and latent factors within the continuous time affine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011777846
Advances in variance analysis permit the splitting of the total quadratic variation of a jump diffusion process into upside and downside components. Recent studies establish that this decomposition enhances volatility predictions, and highlight the upside/downside variance spread as a driver of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011777891