This paper estimates and tests a new Keynesian small open economy model in the tradition of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005) and Smets and Wouters (2003) using Bayesian estimation techniques on Swedish data. To account for the switch to an inflation targeting regime in 1993 we allow for...

We use a vector error correction model to study the long-term relationship between aggregate expected default frequency and the macroeconomic development, i.e. CPI, industry production and short-term interest rate. The model is used to forecast the median expected default frequency of the...

One characteristic feature of central banks today is that policy decisions are almost exclusively made by a committee rather than by a single policy maker. Another is that central banks are considerably more transparent than they used to be. Together, this has brought to the fore an important...

We demonstrate improvements in predictive power when introducing spline functions to take account of highly non-linear relationships between firm failure and earnings, leverage, and liquidity in a logistic bankruptcy model. Our results show that modeling excessive non-linearities yields...

This paper describes the official Riksbank forecasts for the period 2000-06. The forecast variables are those that are important for monetary policy analysis, i.e. inflation, GDP, productivity, employment, labour force, unemployment and financial variables such as interest rate and foreign...

This paper reports and analyzes the results from a questionnaire sent to all present and former members of the Riksbank's Executive Board, the monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Swedish central bank. The questions cover a number of issues discussed in the growing literature on monetary...

We consider forecast combination and, indirectly, model selection for VAR models when there is uncertainty about which variables to include in the model in addition to the forecast variables. The key difference from traditional Bayesian variable selection is that we also allow for uncertainty...

We show how to construct optimal policy projections in Ramses, the Riksbank's openeconomy medium-sized DSGE model for forecasting and policy analysis. Bayesian estimation of the parameters of the model indicates that they are relatively invariant to alternative policy assumptions and supports...

In this paper we undertake an out-of-sample evaluation of the ability of a model to forecast the Swedish Krona's real and nominal effective exchange rate, using a cointegrating relation between the real exchange rate, relative output, terms of trade and net foreign assets (or alternatively the...