We consider a Bayesian Model Averaging approach for the purpose of forecasting Swedish consumer price index inflation using a large set of potential indicators, comprising some 80 quarterly time series covering a wide spectrum of Swedish economic activity. The paper demonstrates how to...

We consider forecast combination and, indirectly, model selection for VAR models when there is uncertainty about which variables to include in the model in addition to the forecast variables. The key difference from traditional Bayesian variable selection is that we also allow for uncertainty...

We extend the standard approach to Bayesian forecast combination by forming the weights for the model averaged forecast from the predictive likelihood rather than the standard marginal likelihood. The use of predictive measures of fit offers greater protection against in-sample overfitting and...

We study 52 million trade credit contracts, issued by 51 suppliers over 9 years to about 199,000 unique customers. The data contain information on contract size, due dates, actual time to payment, and firm characteristics. Our empirical analysis contradicts the conventional view that trade...

Using data on exogenous liquidity losses generated by the fraud and failure of a cash-intransit firm, we demonstrate a causal impact on firms' trade credit usage. We find that firms manage liquidity shortfalls by increasing the amount of drawn credit from suppliers and decreasing the amount...

We empirically investigate the proposition that firms charge premia on cash prices in transactions involving trade credit. Using a comprehensive Swedish panel dataset on product-level transaction prices and firm-characteristics, we relate trade credit issuance to price setting. In a recession...

We use a comprehensive Swedish credit register to document that firms throughout the size distribution have access to fairly large and reasonably priced credit lines, but borrow relatively little from them. We rationalize this using a theoretical framework in which the expected cost of financial...

Buyers and suppliers have diverging interests about trade-credit maturities: buyers desire long payment periods as a source of cheap funding, while suppliers prefer swift payments to avoid locking up scarce liquidity in idle assets. A fast-growing financial product innovation - supply-chain...

We demonstrate improvements in predictive power when introducing spline functions to take account of highly non-linear relationships between firm failure and earnings, leverage, and liquidity in a logistic bankruptcy model. Our results show that modeling excessive non-linearities yields...

This paper studies the relation between macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate defaults while conditioning on industry affiliation and an extensive set of firm-specific factors. Using a logit approach on a panel data set for all incorporated Swedish businesses over 1990-2002, we find strong...