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Oh, Joonseok; Rogantini Picco, Anna - 2020

This paper shows how uninsurable unemployment risk is crucial to qualitatively and quantitatively match macro responses … behaviors, triggering a fall in aggregate demand and supply. These precautionary behaviors increase the unemployment risk of the … imperfectly insured households, who strengthen precautionary saving. When the feedback loop between unemployment risk and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012296809

Density-conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models

Andersson, Michael K.; Palmqvist, Stefan Ulf; Waggoner, … - 2010

When generating conditional forecasts in dynamic models it is common to impose the conditions as restrictions on future structural shocks. However, these conditional forecasts often ignore that there may be uncertainty about the future development of the restricted variables. Our paper therefore...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009792830

The timing of uncertainty shocks in a small open economy

Armelius, Hanna; Hull, Isaiah; Köhler, Hanna Stenbacka - 2016

Foreign measures of uncertainty, such as the US EPU index, are often used as a proxies for domestic uncertainty in small open economies. We construct an EPU index for Sweden and demonstrate that shocks to the domestic index yield different impulse response functions for GDP growth than shocks to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011574319

Should central banks be more aggressive?

Söderström, Ulf - 1999

Simple models of monetary policy often imply optimal policy behavior that is considerably more aggressive than what is commonly observed. This paper argues that such counterfactual implications are due to model restrictions and a failure to account for multiplicative parameter uncertainty,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584195

Uncertainty about length of the monetary policy transmission lag : implications for monetary policy

Ha, Yuong - 1999

Using stochastic simulations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand s macroeconomic model, this paper examines the implications for monetary policy of uncertainty about the length of the monetary policy transmission lag. Uncertainty is examined from two perspectives. The first investigates the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011585387