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Macro uncertainty and unemployment risk
Oh, Joonseok; Rogantini Picco, Anna - 2020
This paper shows how uninsurable unemployment risk is crucial to qualitatively and quantitatively match macro responses … behaviors, triggering a fall in aggregate demand and supply. These precautionary behaviors increase the unemployment risk of the … imperfectly insured households, who strengthen precautionary saving. When the feedback loop between unemployment risk and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012296809
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Monetary policy expectation errors
Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas; Steffensen, Sigurd … - 2022 - This version: January 24, 2022
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012888375
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Inflation at risk in advanced and emerging market economies
Banerjee, Ryan; Contreras, Juan; Mehrotra, Aaron N.; … - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012385139
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Risk endogeneity at the lender/investor-of-last-resort
Caballero, Diego; Lucas, André; Schwaab, Bernd; Zhang, Xin - 2019
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011981369
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Density-conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models
Andersson, Michael K.; Palmqvist, Stefan Ulf; Waggoner, … - 2010
When generating conditional forecasts in dynamic models it is common to impose the conditions as restrictions on future structural shocks. However, these conditional forecasts often ignore that there may be uncertainty about the future development of the restricted variables. Our paper therefore...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009792830
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Should central banks be more aggressive?
Söderström, Ulf - 1999
Simple models of monetary policy often imply optimal policy behavior that is considerably more aggressive than what is commonly observed. This paper argues that such counterfactual implications are due to model restrictions and a failure to account for multiplicative parameter uncertainty,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584195
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Uncertainty about length of the monetary policy transmission lag : implications for monetary policy
Ha, Yuong - 1999
Using stochastic simulations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand s macroeconomic model, this paper examines the implications for monetary policy of uncertainty about the length of the monetary policy transmission lag. Uncertainty is examined from two perspectives. The first investigates the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011585387
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The timing of uncertainty shocks in a small open economy
Armelius, Hanna; Hull, Isaiah; Köhler, Hanna Stenbacka - 2016
Foreign measures of uncertainty, such as the US EPU index, are often used as a proxies for domestic uncertainty in small open economies. We construct an EPU index for Sweden and demonstrate that shocks to the domestic index yield different impulse response functions for GDP growth than shocks to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011574319
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Systemic risk : a new trade-off for monetary policy?
Laséen, Stefan; Pescatori, Andrea; Turunen, Jarkko - 2017
We introduce time-varying systemic risk (à la He and Krishnamurthy, 2014) in an otherwise standard New-Keynesian model … to study whether simple leaning-against-the-wind interest rate rules can reduce systemic risk and improve welfare. We … requirement, can eliminate systemic risk raising welfare by about 1.5%. Also, a surprise monetary policy tightening does not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011713865
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Optimal inflation with corporate taxation and financial constraints
Finocchiaro, Daria; Lombardo, Giovanni; Mendicino, Caterina - 2015 - Revised December 2017
How does inflation affect the investment decisions of financially constrained firms in the presence of corporate taxation? Inflation interacts with corporate taxation via the deductibility of i) capital expenditures and ii) interest payments on debt. Through the first channel, inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011901390