Cross institutional forecast evaluations may be severely distorted by the fact that forecasts are made at different points in time, and thus with different amount of information. This paper proposes a method to account for these differences. The method computes the timing effect and the...

Continuos credibility effects are incorporated into a simple model of optimal monetary policy. The resulting model provides explanations for a number of "folk theorems" about credibility in monetary policy. A central bank with low initial credibility pursues a more restrictive policy than a...