Continuos credibility effects are incorporated into a simple model of optimal monetary policy. The resulting model provides explanations for a number of "folk theorems" about credibility in monetary policy. A central bank with low initial credibility pursues a more restrictive policy than a...

Recent research suggests that commonly estimated dynamic Taylor rules augmented with a lagged interest rate imply too much predictability of interest rate changes compared with yield curve evidence. We show that this is not sufficient proof against the Taylor rule: the result could be driven by...

Using an empirical New-Keynesian model with optimal discretionary monetary policy, we calibrate key parameters - the central bank's preference parameters; the degree of forward-looking behavior in the determination of inflation and output; and the variances of inflation and output shocks - to...