Increasingly many central banks announce likely paths for future policy rates. Recent experience suggest that market forward rates can differ substantially from those announced. Models commonly adopted in policy analysis ignore such differences. This paper studies a simple model that can capture...

Cross institutional forecast evaluations may be severely distorted by the fact that forecasts are made at different points in time, and thus with different amount of information. This paper proposes a method to account for these differences. The method computes the timing effect and the...