Recent research suggests that commonly estimated dynamic Taylor rules augmented with a lagged interest rate imply too much predictability of interest rate changes compared with yield curve evidence. We show that this is not sufficient proof against the Taylor rule: the result could be driven by...

We introduce time-varying systemic risk (à la He and Krishnamurthy, 2014) in an otherwise standard New-Keynesian model to study whether simple leaning-against-the-wind interest rate rules can reduce systemic risk and improve welfare. We find that while financial sector leverage contains...

We analyze financial risk premiums and real economic dynamics in a DSGE model with three types of agents - shareholders, bondholders and workers - that differ in participation in the capital market and in attitude towards risk and intertemporal sub- stitution. Aggregate productivity and...

I construct an estimable statistic that predicts whether a financial innovation will spread. The approach embeds the multi-host SIR model from epidemiology within a financial model of correlated securities trade; and takes advantage of the related predictive tools from mathematical epidemiology,...

I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they account for up to 31% of the variation in excess bond...

This paper presents a theoretical model of the term structure of interest rates based on the monetary policy decision-making process at modern central banks. Evaluations of explicit expressions for the spot and forward rate curve render several important results: (i) Spot and forward rates are...

Prior to the subprime crisis, mortgage brokers charged higher percentage fees for loans that turned out to be riskier ex post, even when conditioning on other risk characteristics. High conditional fees reveal borrower attributes that are associated with high borrower risk, such as suboptimal...

We provide empirical evidence within the context of cryptocurrency markets that the returns from liquidity provision, proxied by the returns of a short-term reversal strategy, are primarily concentrated in trading pairs with lower levels of market activity. Empirically, we focus on a moderately...

We assess the impact of large-scale asset purchases, commonly known as quantitative easing (QE), conducted by Sveriges Riksbank and the European Central Bank (ECB) on bond risk premia in the Swedish government bond market. Using a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and...