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Uncertain pension income and household saving

Santen, Peter van - 2016

savings equation derived from a lifecycle model featuring income uncertainty using survey data for Dutch households, with … the estimated displacement effect of pensions on private savings towards zero. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011547663

Macro uncertainty and unemployment risk

Oh, Joonseok; Rogantini Picco, Anna - 2020

This paper shows how uninsurable unemployment risk is crucial to qualitatively and quantitatively match macro responses … behaviors, triggering a fall in aggregate demand and supply. These precautionary behaviors increase the unemployment risk of the … imperfectly insured households, who strengthen precautionary saving. When the feedback loop between unemployment risk and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012296809

Optimal taxation with home production

Olovsson, Conny - 2014

Optimal taxes for Europe and the U.S. are derived in a realistically calibrated model in which agents buy consumption goods and services and use home capital and labor to produce household services. The optimal tax rate on services is substantially lower than the tax rate on goods. Specifically,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010403685

Density-conditional forecasts in dynamic multivariate models

Andersson, Michael K.; Palmqvist, Stefan Ulf; Waggoner, … - 2010

When generating conditional forecasts in dynamic models it is common to impose the conditions as restrictions on future structural shocks. However, these conditional forecasts often ignore that there may be uncertainty about the future development of the restricted variables. Our paper therefore...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009792830

Risks in macroeconomic fundamentals and excess bond returns predictability

De Rezende, Rafael B. - 2015 - February 2015

I provide evidence that risks in macroeconomic fundamentals contain valuable information about bond risk premia. I … extract factors from a set of quantile-based risk measures estimated for US macroeconomic variables and document that they … unemployment rate. In addition, factors provide information about bond risk premia variation that is largely unrelated to that …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010478516

The timing of uncertainty shocks in a small open economy

Armelius, Hanna; Hull, Isaiah; Köhler, Hanna Stenbacka - 2016

Foreign measures of uncertainty, such as the US EPU index, are often used as a proxies for domestic uncertainty in small open economies. We construct an EPU index for Sweden and demonstrate that shocks to the domestic index yield different impulse response functions for GDP growth than shocks to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011574319

The consequences of uncertainty : climate sensitivity and economic sensitivity to the climate

Hassler, John; Krusell, Per; Olovsson, Conny - 2019

We construct an integrated assessment model with multiple energy sources - two fossil fuels and "green energy" - and use it to evaluate ranges of plausible estimates for the climate sensitivity as well as for the sensitivity of the economy to climate change. Rather than focusing on uncertainty...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011990116

Should central banks be more aggressive?

Söderström, Ulf - 1999

Simple models of monetary policy often imply optimal policy behavior that is considerably more aggressive than what is commonly observed. This paper argues that such counterfactual implications are due to model restrictions and a failure to account for multiplicative parameter uncertainty,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011584195

Uncertainty about length of the monetary policy transmission lag : implications for monetary policy

Ha, Yuong - 1999

Using stochastic simulations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand s macroeconomic model, this paper examines the implications for monetary policy of uncertainty about the length of the monetary policy transmission lag. Uncertainty is examined from two perspectives. The first investigates the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011585387

Optimal inflation with corporate taxation and financial constraints

Finocchiaro, Daria; Lombardo, Giovanni; Mendicino, Caterina - 2015 - Revised December 2017

How does inflation affect the investment decisions of financially constrained firms in the presence of corporate taxation? Inflation interacts with corporate taxation via the deductibility of i) capital expenditures and ii) interest payments on debt. Through the first channel, inflation...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011901390

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