We document an inverse relation between stock-bond correlations and correlations of growth and inflation. We find that rising inflation uncertainty lowers stock prices but can either lower or raise nominal bond prices depending on whether inflation is counter- or procyclical. We show that the...

We show that the difference between the natural rate of interest and the current level of monetary policy stance, which we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises...

We identify local and global factors across international bond markets that are poorly spanned by the traditional level, slope and curvature factors but have strong forecasting power for future bond excess returns. Local and global factors are jointly significant predictors of bond returns,...

We incorporate a latent stochastic volatility factor and macroeconomic expectations in an affine model for the term structure of nominal and real rates. We estimate the model over 1999-2016 on U.S. data for nominal and TIPS yields, the realized and implied volatility of T-bonds and survey...

We develop a conditional factor model for the term structure of treasury bonds, which unifies non parametric curve estimation with cross-sectional asset pricing. Our factors correspond to the optimal non-parametric basis functions spanning the discount curve. They are investable portfolios...

“Buy Now, Pay Later” (BNPL) and other forms of consumer credit create a wedge between consumption and payments. We introduce this wedge into a standard consumption-based asset pricing model (CCAPM). In equilibrium, the pricing kernel equals the marginal utility of consumption divided by the...

We develop alternative models for hedging yield curve risk and test them by hedging US Treasury bond portfolios through note/bond futures. We show that traditional implementations of models based on principal component analysis, duration vectors and key rate duration lead to high exposure to...

We propose a novel time-changed L évy LIBOR market model for the joint pricing of caps and swaptions. The time changes are split into three components. The first component allows us to match the volatility term structure, the second generates stochastic volatility, and the third one...

Popular yield curve models include affine term structure models. These models are usually based on a fixed set of parameters which is calibrated to the actual financial market conditions. Under changing market conditions also parametrization changes. We discuss how parameters need to be updated...

Using quarterly data over 1973:4-2008:2, two-variable systems of house prices and income are specified for three major house-owning economies: New Zealand (N.Z.), the U.K. and the U.S. After considering differences in price−income relationships over sub-periods, the analysis compares responses...