Unemployment, firm Dynamics, and the Business CyclTime variation is a fundamental problem in statistical and econometric analysis of macroeconomic and financial data. Recently there has been considerable focus on developing econometric modelling that enables stochastic structural change in model...

It is well known that non-normality plays an important role in asset and risk management. However, handling a large number of assets has long been a challenge due to the curse of dimensionality. We describe a statistical technique, which we call Moment Component Analysis (MCA), that extends...

We implement a long-horizon static and dynamic portfolio allocation involving a risk-free and a risky asset. This model is calibrated at a quarterly frequency for ten European countries. We also use maximum-likelihood estimates and Bayesian estimates to account for parameter uncertainty. We find...

The use of mixture distributions for modeling asset returns has a long history in finance. New methods of demonstrating support for the presence of mixtures in the multivariate case are provided. The use of a two-component multivariate normal mixture distribution, coupled with shrinkage via a...

The paper proposes a framework for large-scale portfolio optimization which accounts for all the major stylized facts of multivariate financial returns, including volatility clustering, dynamics in the dependency structure, asymmetry, heavy tails, and nonellipticity. It introduces a so-called...

This paper analyzes the expected life-time utility and the hedging demands in an exchange only, representative agent general equilibrium under incomplete information. We derive an expression for the investor's expected life-time utility, and analyze his hedging demands for intertemporal changes...

It is well known that the class of strong (Generalized) AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (or GARCH) processes is not closed under contemporaneous aggregation. This paper provides the dynamics followed by the aggregate process when the individual persistence parameters are drawn from...

Ambiguity aversion in dynamic models is motivated by the presence of unknown time-varying features, which agents do not understand and cannot theorize about. We analyze the consequences of this assumption for economic agents and model builders, who typically need to estimate a model, e.g., to...

Optimal portfolio rules are derived under uncertainty aversion by formulating the portfolio choice problem as a robust control problem. The robust portfolio rule indicates that the total holdings of risky assets as a proportion of the investor's wealth could increase as compared to the holdings...

We present a new theory of homogeneous volatility (and variance) estimators for arbitrary stochastic processes. The main tool of our theory is the parsimonious encoding of all the information contained in the OHLC prices for a given time interval by the joint distributions of the high-minusopen,...