We introduce a novel quantitative methodology to detect real estate bubbles and forecast their critical end time, which we apply to the housing markets of China's major cities. Building on the Log-Periodic Power Law Singular (LPPLS) model of self-reinforcing feedback loops, we use the quantile...

We introduce a novel semi-parametric estimator of the price of American options in a discrete time, Markovian framework. The estimator is based on a parametric specification of the stochasticdiscount factor and is non-parametric w.r.t. the historical dynamics of the state variables. The...

The assessment of models of financial market behavior requires evaluation tools. When complexity hinders a direct estimation approach, e.g., for agent based microsimulation models or complex multifractal models, simulation based estimators might provide an alternative. In order to apply such...

We consider testing for correct specification of a nonparametric instrumental variable regression. In this ill-posed inverse problem setting, the test statistic is based on the empirical minimum distance criterion corresponding to the conditional moment restriction evaluated with a Tikhonov...

We develop a test of equality between two dependence structures estimated through empirical copulas. We provide inference for independent or paired samples. The multiplier central limit theorem is used for calculating p-values of the Crameacute;r-von Mises test statistic. Finite sample properties...

This paper develops a new estimation procedure for characteristic-based factor models of security returns. We treat the factor model as a weighted additive nonparametric regression model, with the factor returns serving as time-varying weights, and a set of univariate nonparametric functions...

We study the asymptotic distribution of Tikhonov Regularized estimation of quantile structural effects implied by a nonseparable model. The nonparametric instrumental variable estimator is based on a minimum distance principle. We show that the minimum distance problem without regularization is...

We develop and implement methods for determining whether introducing new securities or relaxing investment constraints improves the investment opportunity set for prospect investors. We formulate a new testing procedure for prospect spanning for two nested portfolio sets based on subsampling and...

We present a hybrid model for diagnosis and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles. The model combines two elements: 1) the Log Periodic Power Law (LPPL) model to describe endogenous price dynamics originated from positive feedback loops between economic agents; and 2) a diffusion...