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Robust resampling methods for time series

Camponovo, Lorenzo; Scaillet, Olivier; Trojani, Fabio - 2010 - This version: May 9, 2010

We study the robustness of block resampling procedures for time series. We first derive a set of formulas to … applications. This renders inference based on standard resampling methods useless already in simple estimation and testing settings …. To solve this problem, we introduce a robust fast resampling scheme that is applicable to a wide class of time series …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003971115

Predictability hidden by anomalous observations

Camponovo, Lorenzo; Scaillet, Olivier; Trojani, Fabio - 2013

Testing procedures for predictive regressions with lagged autoregressive variables imply a suboptimal inference in presence of small violations of ideal assumptions. We propose a novel testing framework resistant to such violations, which is consistent with nearly integrated regressors and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009721331

A specification test for nonparametric instrumental variable regression

Gagliardini, Patrick (contributor); … - 2007

We consider testing for correct specification of a nonparametric instrumental variable regression. In this ill-posed inverse problem setting, the test statistic is based on the empirical minimum distance criterion corresponding to the conditional moment restriction evaluated with a Tikhonov...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003550675

Testing for threshold effect in ARFIMA models : application to US unemployment rate data

Lahiani, Amine; Scaillet, Olivier - 2008

Macroeconomic time series often involve a threshold effect in their ARMA representation, and exhibit long memory features. In this paper we introduce a new class of threshold ARFIMA models to account for this. The threshold effect is introduced in the autoregressive and/or the fractional...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003966199

Apparent criticality and calibration issues in the Hawkes self-excited point process model : application to high-frequency financial data

Filimonov, Vladimir; Sornette, Didier - 2013

We present a careful analysis of possible issues of the application of the self-excited Hawkes process to high-frequency financial data and carefully analyze a set of effects that lead to significant biases in the estimation of the "criticality index'' n that quantifies the degree of endogeneity...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010257507

Identification and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles in the USA and Switzerland

Ardila, Diego; Sanadgol, Dorsa; Cauwels, Peter; … - 2014

We present a hybrid model for diagnosis and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles. The model combines two elements: 1) the Log Periodic Power Law (LPPL) model to describe endogenous price dynamics originated from positive feedback loops between economic agents; and 2) a diffusion...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010411858

Multiple outlier detection in samples with Exponential & Pareto tails : redeeming the inward approach & detecting Dragon Kings

Wheatley, Spencer; Sornette, Didier - 2015

We consider the detection of multiple outliers in Exponential and Pareto samples -- as well as general samples that have approximately Exponential or Pareto tails, thanks to Extreme Value Theory. It is shown that a simple "robust'' modification of common test statistics makes inward sequential...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011411972

Assessing multivariate predictors of financial market movements : a latent factor framework for ordinal data

Huber, Philippe; Scaillet, Olivier; Victoria-Feser, … - 2008

Much of the trading activity in Equity markets is directed to brokerage houses. In exchange they provide so-called quot;soft dollarsquot; which basically are amounts spent in quot;researchquot; for identifying profitable trading opportunities. Soft dollars represent about USD 1 out of every USD...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003966616

Testing for symmetry and conditional symmetry using asymmetric kernels

Fernandes, Marcelo; Mendes, Eduardo F.; Scaillet, Olivier - 2011

We derive nonparametric tests of symmetry using asymmetric kernels with either shrinking or fixed bandwidths. We show how to extend the approach to examine conditional symmetry by deriving conditions under which our tests are applicable to residuals from semiparametric models with a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009295709

Estimation of large dimensional conditional factor models in finance

Gagliardini, Patrick; Ossola, Elisa; Scaillet, Olivier - 2019 - This version: August 2019

This chapter surveys recent econometric methodologies for inference in large dimensional conditional factor models in finance. Changes in the business cycle and asset characteristics induce time variation in factor loadings and risk premia to be accounted for. The growing trend in the use of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012101166