Humans are notoriously bad at understanding probabilities, exhibiting a host of biases and distortions that are context dependent. This has serious consequences on how we assess risks and make decisions. Several theories have been developed to replace the normative rational expectation theory at...

The paper rst shows that nancial market equilibria need not to exist if agents possesscumulative prospect theory preferences with piecewise-power value functions. This is due tothe boundary behavior of the cumulative prospect theory value function, which might causean innite short-selling...

We develop and implement methods for determining whether introducing new securities or relaxing investment constraints improves the investment opportunity set for prospect investors. We formulate a new testing procedure for prospect spanning for two nested portfolio sets based on subsampling and...

Using properties of the cdf of a random variable defined as a saddle-type point of a real valued continuous stochastic process, we derive first-order asymptotic properties of tests for stochastic spanning w.r.t. a stochastic dominance relation. First, we define the concept of Markowitz...

We show that the optimal asset allocation for an investor depends crucially on the theory with which the investor is modeled. For the same market data and the same client data different theories lead to different portfolios. The market data we consider is standard asset allocation data. The...

We use novel data on individual activity in a sports betting market to study the effect of past performance sequences on individual behavior in a real market. The revelation of fundamental values in this market enables us to disentangle whether behavior is caused by sentiment or by superior...

We propose a simplified approach to mean-variance portfolio problems by changing their parametrisation from trading strategies to final positions. This allows us to treat, under a very mild no-arbitrage-type assumption, a whole range of quadratic optimisation problems by simple mathematical...

We compare asset allocations that are derived for cumulative prospect theory (CPT) based on two different methods: maximizing CPT along the mean {variance efficient frontier and maximizing CPT without this restriction. We find that with normally distributed returns, the difference between these...

We consider dynamic sublinear expectations (i.e., time-consistent coherent risk measures) whose scenario sets consist of singular measures corresponding to a general form of volatility uncertainty. We derive a càdlàg nonlinear martingale which is also the value process of a superhedging...

Ambiguity aversion in dynamic models is motivated by the presence of unknown time-varying features, which agents do not understand and cannot theorize about. We analyze the consequences of this assumption for economic agents and model builders, who typically need to estimate a model, e.g., to...