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We show that the optimal asset allocation for an investor depends crucially on the theory with which the investor is modeled. For the same market data and the same client data different theories lead to different portfolios. The market data we consider is standard asset allocation data. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010338686
We compare asset allocations that are derived for cumulative prospect theory (CPT) based on two different methods: maximizing CPT along the mean {variance efficient frontier and maximizing CPT without this restriction. We find that with normally distributed returns, the difference between these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010411865
This study presents a hedge fund portfolio choice model for an investor facing ambiguity. In the empirical section, we … measure ambiguity as the cross-sectional dispersion in Industrial Production growth and in stock market return forecasts, and … we construct the systematic ambiguity factors from the universe of S&P 500 stocks. We estimate ambiguity betas for long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010337996
We use novel data on individual activity in a sports betting market to study the effect of past performance sequences on individual behavior in a real market. The revelation of fundamental values in this market enables us to disentangle whether behavior is caused by sentiment or by superior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010338735
We consider dynamic sublinear expectations (i.e., time-consistent coherent risk measures) whose scenario sets consist of singular measures corresponding to a general form of volatility uncertainty. We derive a càdlàg nonlinear martingale which is also the value process of a superhedging...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008797677
In this paper we present a two period model, where the agent's preferences are described by prospect theory as proposed by Kahneman and Tversky. We solve for the agent's portfolio decision. Our findings are that the changes in portfolio weights depend crucially on the reference point and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003394349
We propose a simplified approach to mean-variance portfolio problems by changing their parametrisation from trading strategies to final positions. This allows us to treat, under a very mild no-arbitrage-type assumption, a whole range of quadratic optimisation problems by simple mathematical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009558495
Ambiguity aversion in dynamic models is motivated by the presence of unknown time-varying features, which agents do not … ambiguity. We show that in such contexts robust estimation methods are essential for (i) limiting the sensitivity of robust … robust estimation methodology, applicable to many economic settings of ambiguity. In the robust portfolio problem, unknown …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009273101
Estimates of agents' risk aversion differ between market studies and experimental studies. We demonstrate that the estimates can be reconciled through consistent treatment of agents' tendency for narrow framing, regarding integration of background wealth as well as across risky outcomes: Risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009295788
This paper addresses the question of optimal currency exposure for a risk-and-ambiguity-avers international investor. A … robust mean-variance model with smooth ambiguity preferences is used to derive the optimal currency exposure. In the … regression. Through the lens of these results, we demonstrate that our ambiguity-based model offers a new explanation of the home …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012271218