We introduce a novel quantitative methodology to detect real estate bubbles and forecast their critical end time, which we apply to the housing markets of China's major cities. Building on the Log-Periodic Power Law Singular (LPPLS) model of self-reinforcing feedback loops, we use the quantile...

In this paper, we analyze the differences in annualized capital gains across heterogeneous investor groups in the US housing market, namely owner-occupiers, private investors, as well as short- and long-term institutional investors. Our empirical results link the performance differences to...

This paper studies how to incorporate observable factors in difference-in-differences and document their empirical relevance. We show that even under random assignment directly adding factors with unit-specific loadings into the difference-in-differences estimation results in biased estimates....

We examine the roles of bank ownership and CEO political faction membership in facilitating or hindering the implementation of central bank policy in China. Specifically, we examine the response of China’s commercial banks to People’s Bank of China (PBC) guidelines intended to decrease...

This article aims to investigate the similarity of public and private real estate returns and risks over the relatively long horizon using data for the U.S and the U.K. The results show evidence of a one-to-one relationship between publicly traded REIT performance and privately traded direct...

The financial crisis of 2008, which started with an initially well-defined epicenter focused on mortgage backed securities (MBS), has been cascading into a global economic recession, whose increasing severity and uncertain duration has led and is continuing to lead to massive losses and damage...

We use sector level REIT and transaction-based direct real estate data for the U.S. to provide a clearer understanding of the dynamic relations between public and private real estate returns. We exclude leverage from REIT returns to make the REIT data more comparable with the direct market data....

We analyze the impacts of alternative submarket definitions when predicting house prices in a mass appraisal context, using both ordinary least squares (OLS) and geostatistical techniques. For this purpose, we use over 13,000 housing transactions for Louisville, Kentucky. We use districts...

This research contributes to a better assessment of risk factors impacting non-listed real estate fund returns. Both macroeconomic and fund-specific factors are considered, additionally taking into account the phase of the real estate cycle. Using a rich database of fund-level data for Europe,...

We investigate the evolution from 2000 to 2015 in the proportion of papers published by authors with a European affiliation in the three main international real estate journals. Then, we analyze papers with at least one European author and/or concentrating on Europe published from 2008 to 2015...