This paper studies the earnings management behavior of a manager in a strategic game in which the manager may have incentives to avoid earnings below the analysts' consensus forecast and the analysts aiming to provide accurate forecasts behave as rational Bayesians. Our analysis reveals the...

We examine whether the relationship between managerial risk-taking incentives and bank risk is sensitive to the underlying macroeconomic conditions. We find that risk-taking incentives provided to bank executives are associated with higher bank riskiness during economic downturns. We attribute...

Complementarity between performance pay and other organizational design elements has been argued to be one potential explanation for stark differences in the observed productivity gains from performance pay adoption. Using detailed data on internal organization for a nationally representative...

This paper derives an analytic expression for the distribution of the average volatility $\frac{1}{T-t} \int_t^T \sigma_s^2 ds$ in the stochastic volatility model of Hull and White. This result answers a longstanding question, posed by Hull and White (Journal of Finance 42, 1987), whether such...

We analyze the implications of dynamic flows on a mutual fund manager's portfolio decisions. In our model, a myopic investor is allowed to dynamically allocate capital between a riskless asset and an actively managed mutual fund who charges fraction of fund fees. The presence of dynamic flows...

In this paper we present a modelling framework for portfolio credit risk which incorporates the dependence between risk-free interest-rates and the default loss process. The contribution in this approach is that - besides the traditional diffusion based covariation between loss intensities and...

This paper develops a real options framework to analyze the behavior of stock returns in mergers and acquisitions. In this framework, the timing and terms of takeovers are endogenous and result from value-maximizing decisions. The implications of the model for abnormal announcement returns are...

The Munich chain-ladder reserving method was introduced on an axiomatic basis. We analyze these axioms and we define a modified Munich chain-ladder reserving method which is based on an explicit stochastic model. This stochastic model then allows to consider claims prediction and prediction...

We model the dynamics of asset prices and associated derivatives by consideration of the dynamics of the conditional probability density process for the value of an asset at some specified time in the future. In the case where the asset is driven by Brownian motion, an associated "master...

We introduce a novel semi-parametric estimator of the price of American options in a discrete time, Markovian framework. The estimator is based on a parametric specification of the stochasticdiscount factor and is non-parametric w.r.t. the historical dynamics of the state variables. The...