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we label Convergence Gap (CG), contains information that is valuable for bond predictability. Adding CG in forecasting … regressions of bond excess returns significantly raises the R-squared, and restores countercyclical variation in bond risk premia … the path of rates, our factor has predictive ability for real bond excess returns. The importance of the gap remains …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012134247
This paper (i) proposes a simple multi-currency model of speculative foreign exchange (FX) trading, (ii) uses a natural experiment to identify the implied components of the optimal trading strategy, and (iii) proposes a new spectral inference method to strengthen the statistical evidence on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009558406
long vs. the short maturity bond segments and show that enhanced institutional quality, higher credit quality and better …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010413280
We find that the degree and dynamics of sovereign bond market integration across 21 developed and 18 emerging countries … dissipating local risk premiums. Integration of the sovereign bond markets increases by about 10% on average, when a country moves …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011618981
Many bond portfolio managers argue that bond laddering tends to outperform other bond investment strategies because it … reduces both market price risk and reinvestment risk for a bond portfolio in the presence of interest rate uncertainty …. Despite the popularity of bond ladders as a strategy for managing investments in fixed-income securities, there is surprising …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003966082
The effective functioning of the municipal bond market is crucial for the provision of public services, as it is the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011938223
Over the last decade foreign bond portfolio positions in US dollar assets have risen above the reciprocal US investor … bond positions, which creates a net hedging demand for dollar assets that depreciates USD rates in both the forward and … uncertainty and the US net foreign bond position in various currencies. Based on a parsimonious VAR model, we find that changes in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236684
This paper establishes a general relation between investor's ambiguity and non-Gaussianity of financial asset returns. Based on that relation and utilizing a flexible non-Gaussian returns model for the joint distribution of portfolio and currency returns, we develop an ambiguity-adjusted dynamic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013215574
We show how distributions can be reduced to low-dimensional scenario trees. Applied to intertemporal distributions, the scenarios and their probabilities become time-varying factors. From S&P 500 options, two or three time-varying scenarios suffice to forecast returns, implied variance or...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012003165
We examine international equity allocations at the fund level and show how different returns on the foreign and domestic proportion of portfolios determine rebalancing behavior and trigger capital flows. We document the heterogeneity of rebalancing across fund types, its greater intensity under...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011875988