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explaining EREIT returns and examines the usefulness of these variables in forecasting returns. Four models are analyzed and … their predictive potential is assessed by comparing three forecasting methods: time varying coefficient (TVC) regressions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005162987
Our paper addresses the correction of the aggregation bias in linear rational expectations models when there is some unobserved micro-parameter heterogeneity and only macro data are available. Starting from Lewbel (1994), we propose two new consistent estimators, which rely on a flexible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008479288
variables useful in forecasting securitized real estate returns. This paper examines whether the predictive ability of the two … between securitized real estate and each of the two sets of forecasting variables. That is, we examine whether such … and real estate factors generally outperform economic variables in forecasting securitized real estate returns. Long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005258360
Prediction (or information) markets are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoff depends on unknown future events. Studying prediction markets allows to avoid many problems, which arise in some artificially designed behavioral experiments investigating collective decision making...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010550278
This paper deals with efficient estimation in exchangeable nonlinear dynamic panel models with common unobservable factor. The specification accounts for both micro- and macro-dynamics, induced by the lagged individual observation and the common stochastic factor, respectively. For large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005258352
This paper examines the impact of managerial entrenchment on corporate financing decisions. We build a dynamic contingent claims model in which financing policy results from a trade-off between tax benefits, agency conflicts, and contracting frictions. In our setting, managers do not act in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005258357
Ambiguity aversion in dynamic models is motivated by the presence of unknown time-varying features, which agents do not understand and cannot theorize about. We analyze the consequences of this assumption for economic agents and model builders, who typically need to estimate a model, e.g., to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010550271
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010550280
Estimates of agents' risk aversion dier between market studies and experimental studies. We demonstrate that the estimates can be reconciled through consistent treatment of agents' tendency for narrow framing, regarding integration of background wealth as well as across risky outcomes: Risk...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010550283
, slope and curvature factors but have strong forecasting power for future bond excess returns. Local and global factors are … cross-section of yields conveys little information about the return-forecasting factors. We show that shocks to global risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010550284