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explaining EREIT returns and examines the usefulness of these variables in forecasting returns. Four models are analyzed and … their predictive potential is assessed by comparing three forecasting methods: time varying coefficient (TVC) regressions …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005162987
Our paper addresses the correction of the aggregation bias in linear rational expectations models when there is some unobserved micro-parameter heterogeneity and only macro data are available. Starting from Lewbel (1994), we propose two new consistent estimators, which rely on a flexible...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008479288
variables useful in forecasting securitized real estate returns. This paper examines whether the predictive ability of the two … between securitized real estate and each of the two sets of forecasting variables. That is, we examine whether such … and real estate factors generally outperform economic variables in forecasting securitized real estate returns. Long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005258360
Prediction (or information) markets are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoff depends on unknown future events. Studying prediction markets allows to avoid many problems, which arise in some artificially designed behavioral experiments investigating collective decision making...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010550278
This paper studies the asset pricing implications of a general equi- librium model in which real investment is reversible at a cost. Firms face higher costs in contracting than in expanding their capital stock and decide to invest when their productive capital is scarce relative to the overall...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008479278
Agents with cognitive limitations may compute the expected value of a risky asset incorrectly. If market prices reflect the probabilities of the payoff-relevant states, agents who compute the probabilities incorrectly encounter a market price that is inconsistent with their calculation. We test...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008479286
We study the existence of equilibria with endogenously complete markets in a continuous-time, heterogenous agents economy driven by a multidimensional diffusion process. Our main results show that if prices are real analytic as functions of time and the state variables of the model then a suffi-...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008479287
We derive representations for the stock price drift and volatility in the equilibrium of agents with arbitrary, heterogeneous utility functions and with the aggregate dividend following an arbitrary Markov diffusion. We introduce a new, intrinsic characteristic of the aggregate dividend process...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008479293
We perform a detailed asymptotic analysis of the equilibrium behavior of the asset prices, wealth size and portfolio weights in complete markets equilibria, with long-lived funds. In equilibrium, the fund with the (closest to) log preference will dominate the other funds in size, in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004990855
This paper deals with efficient estimation in exchangeable nonlinear dynamic panel models with common unobservable factor. The specification accounts for both micro- and macro-dynamics, induced by the lagged individual observation and the common stochastic factor, respectively. For large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005258352