This paper studies actual (real) house prices relative to fundamental (real) house values in New Zealand for the period 1970-2005. We find disparities between actual and fundamental house prices in the early 1970s and 1980s and from 2000 to date. These deviations are found to be substantially...

This paper studies the termstructure implications of a simple structuralmodel inwhich the representative agent displays ambiguity aversion, modeled by Multiple Priors Recursive Utility. Bond excess returns reflect a premium for ambiguity, which is observationally distinct from the risk premium...

This appendix extends the empirical results in Chesney, Crameri, and Mancini (2011). Informed trading activities on put and call options are analyzed for 19 companies in the banking and insurance sectors from January 1996 to September 2009. Our empirical findings suggest that certain events such...

We analyze the impact of funding costs and margin requirements on prices of index options traded on the CBOE. We propose a model that gives upper and lower bounds for option prices in the absence of arbitrage in an incomplete market with differential borrowing and lending rates. We show that...

We develop statistical methods to detect informed trading in options markets. We apply these methods to 31 companies from various sectors over 14 years analyzing approximately 9.6 million option prices. We find that option informed trading tends to cluster prior to certain events, takes place...

We provide a new method to derive the state price density per unit probability based on option prices and GARCH model. We derive the risk neutral distribution using the result in Breeden and Litzenberger (1978) and the historical density adapting the GARCH model of Barone-Adesi, Engle, and...

We develop a stochastic volatility option pricing model that exploits the informative content of historical high frequency data. Using the Two Scales Realized Volatility as a proxy for the unobservable returns volatility, we propose a simple (affine) but effective long-memory process: the...

We model the dynamics of asset prices and associated derivatives by consideration of the dynamics of the conditional probability density process for the value of an asset at some specified time in the future. In the case where the asset is driven by Brownian motion, an associated "master...

There has been a long debate about whether speculators are stabilizing or not. We consider a model where speculators have a stabilizing role in normal times, but may also provoke large risk panics. The very feature that makes arbitrageurs liquidity providers in normal times, namely their...

This paper studies the performance of mutual funds around the world using a sample of 10,568 open-end actively managed equity funds from 19 countries between 1999 and 2005. Performance is measured using four alternative benchmark models, including an international version of the Cahart...