We revisit the apparent historical success of technical trading rules on daily prices of the DJIA from 1897 to 2008. We use the False Discovery Rate as a new approach to data snooping. The advantage of the FDR over existing methods is that it selects more outperforming rules and di- versies...

Ambiguity aversion in dynamic models is motivated by the presence of unknown time-varying features, which agents do not understand and cannot theorize about. We analyze the consequences of this assumption for economic agents and model builders, who typically need to estimate a model, e.g., to...

Using an artificial neural network (ANN), a fixed universe of ~1500 equities from the Value Line index are rank-ordered by their predicted price changes over the next quarter. Inputs to the network consist only of the ten prior quarterly percentage changes in price and in earnings for each...

In this study, we examine the rationale that informed traders use in choosing various financial instruments in order to speculate on the volatility of the underlying asset, here a common stock. Using a continuous-time trading model, we demonstrate that the quality of the private information...

The early stage of the recent ?nancial crisis was marked by large value losses for bank stocks. This paper identi?es the equity funds most affected by this valuation shock and examines its consequences for the non-?financial stocks owned by the respective funds. We find that (i) ownership links...

This paper explores the idea that the speed with which equity prices reflect any benefits or costs of voluntary disclosure quality (VDQ) varies across firms. We find that for firms where we expect informational efficiency to be high, VDQ is not associated with returns beyond those available...

Agents with cognitive limitations may compute the expected value of a risky asset incorrectly. If market prices reflect the probabilities of the payoff-relevant states, agents who compute the probabilities incorrectly encounter a market price that is inconsistent with their calculation. We test...

Using data for the 1978-2008 period, this study presents evidence for cointegration between securitized (NAREIT) and direct (NCREIF) total return indices. Cointegration between the indices indicates that REITs and direct real estate are substitutable in the portfolio of a long-horizon...

We study a number of large international military con flicts since World War II where we establish a news analysis as a proxy for the estimated likelihood that the con ict will result in a war. We find that in cases when there is a pre-war phase, an increase in the war likelihood tends to...

We analyse questions of arbitrage in financial markets in which asset prices change in time as stationary stochastic processes. The main focus of the paper is on a model where the price vectors are independent and identically distributed. In the framework of this model, we find conditions that...