This paper studies money demand in Switzerland under free banking before the establishment of the Swiss National Bank. We find that, in addition to income, the banks' balance-sheet-to-GDP ratio and the number of banks were important determinants of long-run money demand. The former variable also...

This paper studies the predictive power for recessions of the slope of the Swiss term structure using monthly data for 1974-2017. Dynamic probit models indicate that the term structure contains information useful for predicting recessions for horizons up to 19 months. Whether the economy is...

This paper studies the causes of movements in inflation and output in Switzerland over 160 years between 1855 and 2015. Aggregate supply and demand shocks are identified in a structural VAR, and their evolution and effect on prices and output are discussed. Shocks to the Swiss economy have...