This paper deals with the problem of the discrimination between wellpredictable and not-well-predictable time series. One criterion for the separation is given by the size of the Lyapunov exponent, which was originally defined for deterministic systems. However, the Lyapunov exponent can also be...

The major focus of this paper is to determine whether the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts has improved over time. We examine 1-year-ahead forecasts of real GDP and inflation for 1967 to 2001 made by three major German forecasting groups and the OECD. We examine the accuracy of the...