The major focus of this paper is to determine whether the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts has improved over time. We examine 1-year-ahead forecasts of real GDP and inflation for 1967 to 2001 made by three major German forecasting groups and the OECD. We examine the accuracy of the...

The 1990s were the most prosperous decade in U.S. economic history. The paper analyses to which extent this period fits into preceding cyclical experience. This is done by classifying the period 1991-12 to 2000-12 with the help of a 4-phase classification scheme based on multivariate...

The recent renaissance of business cycle analysis has led to a renewed interest in business cycle classification as pioneered by Burns/Mitchell, Spiethoff and resumed in the seventies by Meyer/Weinberg (1975a, b). The rather successful elaboration and test of a “modern” four-phase...