The aim of this paper is to identify a set of early warning indicators that effectively discriminate between firms that are more prone to default on their financial obligations from those that are less prone to do so. To fulfill this objective, we use the Discriminant Analysis methodology. We...

In this paper we seek to assess the ability of banks to withstand the e?ects of an increase in credit risk as a result of changes in the macroeconomic environment. To do so we estimate a credit risk model for each loan type as a function of four macroeconomic variables commonly used in the...

In recent years, credit growth has been accelerated recording higher levels of credit as a percentage of GDP, compared to previous years in some countries of Latin America. In Colombia, credit to GDP indicator had increased almost 10 percentage points in the last five years. For this reason, it...

In this document we develop a DSGE model to analyze the effect that a consumption boom and a productivity shock have over financial stability and macroeconomic variables, in both, an economy with and without Basel III capital requirements and earnings reinvestment rule. The results suggest that...

The relationship between capital flows and domestic credit emerges from different channels which are usually not directly identified. In this paper, a principal-agent approach is proposed in order to disentangle the channels through which shocks on capital debt flows can affect credit-related...

El objetivo de este documento es describir las relaciones crediticias que tienen las entidades que participan en el mercado interbancario no colateralizado en Colombia (MINC), y analizar sus efectos sobre el riesgo de contagio. Estas relaciones se miden con los índices de preferencia del deudor...

Colombia’s financial system has undertaken major changes during the last decade, with new regulatory regimes being implemented, as well as a significant expansion of financial services. Nevertheless, the recent literature has yet to analyze this new epoch for banking institutions under an...

Este documento analiza la relación entre estabilidad financiera y concentración bancaria en la economía colombiana para el periodo 1994-2009. Para evaluar esta relación, se construyó un panel dinámico desbalanceado en el que se relacionan indicadores de estabilidad financiera y...

En este documento se presenta un índice de precios de vivienda nueva ajustado por cambios en la calidad de los inmuebles para la ciudad de Bogotá. Para ello se utilizó la base de datos de La Galería Inmobiliaria para el período 2003-2013. El indicador se construyó utilizando el modelo...

This paper is an attempt at constructing a simple and effective macroprudential tool for policymakers. By integrating the joint occurrences of the main financial markets in Colombia into a single Financial Conditions Index (FCI), we hope to synthesize the information embedded in them regarding...