The scapegoat theory of exchange rates (Bacchetta and van Wincoop 2004, 2013) suggests that market participants may attach excessive weight to individual economic fundamentals, which are picked as scapegoats to rationalize observed currency fluctuations at times when exchange rates are driven by...

We estimate the contemporaneous effect of education on adolescent crime by exploiting the variation in crime rates between different cohorts and at different ages that followed a reform that raised the school-leaving age in Italy. A 1 percentage-point increase of the enrollment rate reduces...

Social capital is a key factor affecting the functioning of financial markets (Guiso, Sapienza and Zingales, 2004). However, the estimation of the effect of social capital on credit markets is notoriously difficult. In this paper we exploit the recent Lehman Brothers crisis and a rich dataset to...

Global monetary conditions are often cited as a driver of commodity prices. This paper investigates the empirical relationship between US monetary policy and commodity prices by means of a standard VAR system, commonly used in analysing the effects of monetary policy shocks. The results suggest...

This paper analyses the relationship between international fragmentation of production, trade openness and global export performance in the European Union from 2000 to 2009. As most trade models featuring international production sharing show, the higher the level of fragmentation and related...

Assessing the global economic outlook is a fundamentally important task of international financial institutions, governments and central banks. In this paper we focus on the consequences of the rapid growth of emerging markets for monitoring and forecasting the global outlook. Our main results...

We model the determinants of loans to non-financial corporations in the euro area. Using the Johansen (1992) methodology, we identify three cointegrating relationships. These relationships are interpreted as the long-run loan demand, investment and loan supply equations. The short-run dynamics...

The work of Ghironi and Melitz (2005) is at the frontier of international real business cycle (IRBC) models with heterogeneous firms. In their model, the dynamic behaviour of real marginal costs is puzzling: a positive technology shock hitting the home country makes it permanently less...

This paper builds a dynamic model of the information flow between partially informed financial institutions and a public agency. The financial institutions decide how to allocate their portfolio between a risk-free technology with a known payoff and a risky technology whose payoff is unknown....

In this paper we present two statistical approaches for discussing and modelling job satisfaction based on data collected in the Survey on Household Income and Wealth (SHIW) conducted by the Bank of Italy. In particular, we compare two different classes of model for ordinal data: the Ordinal...