This paper studies the determination of the surpluses of the Brazilian central government. For quarterly data from 1996 through 2011, the empirical strategy included: i) structural break models and nonlinear estimates on the level of public debt, to handle the inertia after 1999, for high levels...

This paper attempts to discuss quality and some improvements in high frequency time series data of the nominal gross investment expenses for Brazilian municipalities which are state capitals. We first utilized data for the 2001-2008 period available in Relatórios Resumidos de Execução...

We estimate the Phillips curve with an exchange rate shock to the Brazilian economy. Besides panel data, we estimate the Phillips curve by time series methodology, including Bayesian techniques and Smoothing Transition Regressions (STR) model. The econometric results show three important...

In this Discussion Paper, we test forecasting models for inflation and economic activity with macroeconomic data and economic surveys between January 2002 and October 2019 on a monthly basis. Due to the high dimension nature of the set of explanatory variables, we use machine learning (ML)...

This paper focuses on the changes in income and activity sectors on the economically active rural population (EAP) between 1996 and 2006. Besides a brief introduction, its divide into more tree parts. The first part analyzes the changes in income and activity sectors based on the National...