Betting on elections has been of interest to economists and political scientists for some time. We recently persuaded TradeSports to run experimental contingent betting markets, in which one bets on whether President Bush will be re-elected, conditional on other specified events occurring. Early...

Betting on elections has been of interest to economists and political scientists for some time. We recently persuaded TradeSports to run experimental contingent betting markets, in which one bets on whether President Bush will be re-elected, conditional on other specified events occurring. Early...

Contrary to Paul Rubin's recent testimony to the Senate Judiciary Committee, we believe the fragility of their estimates and the invalidity of their instrumental variables undermine Dezhbakhsh, Rubin, and Shepherd's work as evidence that the death penalty deters murder.

John Donohue and Justin Wolfers argue that Gary Becker and Richard Posner are wrong to think that the death penalty deters murder: they find little empirical support for the claim. If anything, when one looks over the longest period possible (1934-2000) there is more evidence that the death...