This paper analyses the usefulness as a policy tool of a physical index of radiative forcing of a greenhouse gas, the Global Warming Potential (GWP), as proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It is shown that the economic opportunity costs of an increment in radiative forcing...

Policies under consideration within the Climate Convention would impose CO2 controls on only a subset of nations. A model of economic growth and emissions, coupled to an analysis of the climate system, is used to explore the consequences of a sample proposal of this type. The results show how...

When conducting a multi-gas analysis, there are distinct advantages in moving from concentrations to radiative forcing. With the former, it is customary to use Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) for making tradeoffs among greenhouse gases. A number of studies have shown the arbitrariness of this...

Energy forecasting is a hazardous occupation. Virtually any projection is doomed to be incorrect. Opinions can swing from one extreme to another during a six-month period. Our paper is not intended to provide still another projection, but rather to try to explain why different individuals and...

This paper analyzes the distribution of long-term oil price projections submitted by participants in the January 1986 International Energy Workshop (IEW) poll. Wide differences of opinion are observed between individual respondents.

This paper employs a five-region intertemporal model to examine three issues related to carbon emission restrictions. First, we investigate the possible impact of such limits upon future oil prices. We show that carbon limits are likely to differ in their near- and long-term impact. Second, we...

In this paper, we examine the economic costs of stabilizing global CO2 emissions at 1990 levels. Previous analyses of the costs of emissions abatement have tended to be deterministic. That is, no attempt was made to assign probabilities to various scenarios. Policy-makers need information both...

This paper provides a cost-benefit analysis of controlling or decreasing C02 emissions. It uses an analytical framework, called Global 2100, which is designed to evaluated C02 energy economy interactions and estimate the cost of a carbon emissions limit. It analyzes three demand parameters...

Natural gas ranks second only to crude oil as a primary source of energy in North America, During recent years, gas has satisfied 25 percent of all energy requirements in the United States. Most of this gas has been produced domestically, but 5 to 10 percent has been supplied by pipeline imports...

In this paper, we explore how the costs of a CO2 limit are likely to vary among regions. The analysis is based on Global 2100: an analytical framework for estimating the economy-wide impacts of rising energy costs. We investigate how emissions are likely to evolve in the absence of a carbon...