Rising oil prices appear to retard aggregate U.S. economic activity by more than falling oil prices stimulate it. Past research suggests adjustment costs, financial stress, and/or monetary policy may be possible explanations for the asymmetric response. This paper uses a near vector...

In the early 1980s, soft world oil markets were accompanied by two important and unforeseen world economic developments: stagnant economic growth and an appreciating dollar. The virtual standstill in economic growth from 1980 to 1982 was well off the 3 percent-plus growth path many analysts had...

This paper reviews forecasts of oil prices over the 1980s that were made in 1980. It identifies the sources of errors due to such factors as exogenous GNP assumptions, resource supply conditions outside the cartel, and demand adjustments to price changes. Through 1986, the first two factors...

The oil security issue has been pushed once again to the forefront of energy policy deliberations. While a number of different policy options are being considered and discussed, none has generated as much heated debate as the imposition of an oil import tariff in the United States (see Broadman...

This paper summarizes the research by the Ninth Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group which focused on the evolution of the North American natural gas market through 2010.1 The group analyzed four standardized scenarios: upper and lower oil price paths, the low U.S. natural gas resource...

At its heart, Harry Saunders' Comment raises two principal criticisms I of the EMF study, "Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks"; The EMF study held constant the disrupted-state world oil price; effects of policy actions on the world oil price were not included. Saunders faults the EMF for not...

Sustained decreases in crude oil prices appear to affect the U.S. economy differently than sustained increases. This paper shows that a significant part of the observed asymmetry is due to adjustments within the energy sector and not within the rest of the economy. In particular, sustained...

In the last several years, market forces and institutions have transformed international natural gas markets in fundamental ways. Natural gas today is relatively easy to transport over water, and an increasing volume of purchases flow through the spot market. As trade grows, regional prices...