In trying to assess the content and significance of Keynes's attempted revolution in economic methodology, historians have almost exclusively focused on the <italic>General Theory</italic>. By highlighting the legacy of the <italic>Treatise on Probability</italic> for Keynes's economic writings, this article provides evidence of...

In one of the most famous passages of the economic literature, John Maynard Keynes likens the stock market to a beauty contest (BC), in which the winners are those who anticipate the average opinion. In behavioural economics there have recently been attempts at investigating the BC...