Similar Search Results

The State of the Indian Economy 2009-10

Joseph, Mathew - 2009

Despite signs of recovery from the global financial crisis, the GDP growth rate for the Indian economy is likely to be between 5.8 to 6.1 per cent in 2009-10, below the 6.7 per cent recorded in fiscal 2008-09. While there has been an improvement in Indian industry, particularly the manufacturing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011807647

Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction : evidence from a machine learning approach

Bluwstein, Kristina; Buckmann, Marcus; Joseph, Andreas; … - 2021

-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify economic drivers of our machine learning models using a novel framework based on Shapley …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705396

Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test

Kolasa, Marcin; Rubaszek, Michał; Skrzypczyński, Paweł - 2009

. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate forecasting power of the DSGE turns out to be similar or better than that of the SPF for all the variables and …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003963819

Understanding and forecasting aggregate and disaggregate price dynamics

Bermingham, Colin; D'Agostino, Antonello - 2011

choice of data transformation. - Aggregation ; Forecasting ; Inflation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009238003

Text-based recession probabilities

Ferrari, Massimo; Le Mezo, Helena - 2021

This paper proposes a new methodology based on textual analysis to forecast U.S. recessions. Specifically, the paper develops an index in the spirit of Baker et al. (2016) and Caldara and Iacoviello (2018) which tracks developments in U.S. real activity. When used in a standard recession...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012421073

Forecasting and stress testing with quantile vector autoregression

Chavleishvili, Sulkhan; Manganelli, Simone - 2019

We introduce a structural quantile vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Unlike standard VAR which models only the average interaction of the endogenous variables, quantile VAR models their interaction at any quantile. We show how to estimate and forecast multivariate quantiles within a recursive...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012122051

The effect of new housing supply in structural models : a forecasting performance evaluation

Girstmair, Stefan - 2024

Equilibrium (DSGE) models in forecasting the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), focusing on the U.S. While existing models have added a … includes both the financial sector and endogenous housing supply and show that forecasting accuracy significantly improves when … highlight the necessity of combining model extension and housing supply data for accurate forecasting during economic crises. I …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014484423

Bank crises and investor confidence

Osili, Una Okonkwo; Paulson, Anna - 2008

In addition to their direct effects, episodes of financial instability may decrease investor confidence. Measuring the impact of a crisis on investor confidence is complicated by the fact that it is difficult to disentangle the effect of investor confidence from coincident direct effects of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010292170

Financialisation and the financial and economic crises: Theoretical framework and empirical analysis for 15 countries

Dodig, Nina; Hein, Eckhard; Detzer, Daniel - 2015

This paper analyses the long-run effects of financialisation and of the recent financial and economic crises for 15 countries. In order to provide a theoretical framework, we first outline three types of regimes under the conditions of financialisation, namely a debtled private demand boom, an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011310221

Financialisation and financial crisis in Iceland

Guðmundsson, Björn Rúnar - 2015

Financialisation in Iceland should be seen as an evolving process driven by a mixture of global and domestic forces. Responding to fundamental issues underlying macroeconomic imbalances, the authorities introduced policies that proved particularly supportive of financial expansion at a time when...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011310222