It's not the latest jump in oil prices that takes a toll on the economy but the uncertainty over what will happen in the future. But getting a handle on such uncertainty is a difficult task.

When oil prices jump, people get jumpy-especially when the Fed is bumping up interest rate targets at the same time. Why? Because these two events have accompanied virtually every recession since World War II. At least until now.

Besides supply and demand, speculation is drawing a lot of attention these days as a cause of higher oil prices.

We all know the size of the Fed chairman's briefcase as a policy indicator is a joke. But would knowing what's inside the briefcase be of real help?

Although some think it's too soon to worry about high inflation, there are risks for that to happen in the medium term. Besides the obvious risks, a new bubble might be brewing in asset prices as investors search for higher returns, and the gap between actual output and potential output might be...

President's message.

Commodities of all sorts have risen in price over the past few years. Some say that the prices reflect a bubble, driven by low interest rates and excessive speculation. Others say the price gains can be fully explained by supply and demand.

Despite pockets of strength, the U.S. economy continues to struggle to build consistent momentum. Real GDP growth rebounded in the first quarter of 2013 after ending 2012 on a relatively weak note.