We develop a method for measuring the foresight agents have. We first dichotomize an agent's information at current date t into knowledge up to date t + f and expectations after t + f. We then form a residual-based test statistic that allows us to compare prediction errors for econometric models...

We study the effect of income uncertainty on consumption in a model that includes precautionary saving. In contrast to previous studies, we focus on time-series variation in income uncertainty. Our time-series measure of income uncertainty is constructed from a panel of forecasts. We find...

Nonlinear regression with measurement error is important for estimation from microeconomic data. One approach to identification and estimation is a causal model, in which the unobserved true variable is predicted by observable variables. This paper details the estimation of such a model using...