This paper evaluates the use of measures of regional economic activity to forecast tax revenues for New York State and New York City at 3-, 6-, and 12-month horizons. We construct sales- and withholding-tax base series and then apply the methodology of Stock and Watson (1989, 1991) to estimate...

We provide estimates of the effects and long-run elasticities of the tax base with respect to tax rates for four large U.S. cities: Houston (property taxation), Minneapolis (property taxation), New York City (property, general sales, and income taxation), and Philadelphia (property, gross...