We provide an empirical test of contrast effects—a bias where a decision maker perceives information in contrast to what preceded it—in the quasi-experimental context of speed dating decisions. We document that prior partner attractiveness reduces the subsequent likelihood of an affirmative...

Traditional explanations for indirect trade through an entrepôt focus on savings in transport costs and the role of specialized agents in processing and distribution. We provide an alternative perspective based on the potential for entrepôts to facilitate tariff evasion. Using data on direct...

Previous work has claimed that monopoly power facilitates the provision of credit, because monopolists are better able to enforce payment. Here, we argue that if relationship-specific investments are required by borrowers to establish creditworthiness, monopoly power may reduce credit provision...

This paper studies the effect of foreign competition on the extent of forecasting bias. I focus on two biases often described in the behavioral economics literature: overoptimism and excessive belief in trends. Using data from firm-level surveys in five African countries, I show that firms that...

Quantitative estimates of the impacts of climate change on economic outcomes are important for public policy. We show that the vast majority of estimates fail to account for well-established uncertainty in future temperature and rainfall changes, leading to potentially misleading projections. We...

We study a randomized evaluation of a merit scholarship program in which Kenyan girls who scored well on academic exams had school fees paid and received a grant. Girls showed substantial exam score gains, and teacher attendance improved in program schools. There were positive externalities for...

A new stylized fact in development economics is the importance of social capital in promoting economic growth. This paper examines the effect of social capital on industrialization in Indonesia. We analyze a rich set of social capital and social interaction measures, including voluntary...