This paper uses the approach of Im, Pesaran and Shin (2003) to propose seasonal unit root tests for dynamic heterogeneous panels based on the means of the individuals HEGY test statistics. The standardised t-bar and F-bar statistics are simply averages of the HEGY tests across groups. These...

This paper presents two alternative methods for modifying the HEGY-IPS test in the presence of cross-sectional dependency. In general, the bootstrap method (BHEGY-IPS) has greater power than the method suggested by Pesaran (2007) (CHEGY-IPS), although for large T and high degree of...

The panel variant of the KPSS tests developed by Hadri (2000) for the null of stationarity suffers from size distortions in the presence of cross section dependence. However, applying the bootstrap methodology we find that these tests are approximately correctly sized.

This paper investigates the evolution of electricity prices for domestic customers in the UK following the introduction of competition. The empirical analysis is based on a panel data set containing detailed information about electricity supply prices over the period 1999 to 2006. The analysis...

In this paper we conduct a Monte Carlo study to determine the power of Pearson’s overall goodness-of-fit test as well as the “Pearson analog” tests (see Anderson (1994)) to detect rejections due to shifts in variance, skewness and kurtosis, as we vary the number and location of the...

Periodic models for seasonal data allow the parameters of the model to vary across the different seasons. This paper uses the components of UK consumption to see whether the periodic autoregressive (PAR) model yields more accurate forecasts than non-periodic models, such as the airline model of...

This paper extends the cross-sectionally augmented IPS (CIPS) test of Pesaran (2006) to a three-dimensional (3D) panel. This 3D-CIPS test is correctly sized in the presence of cross-sectional dependency. Comparing its power performance to that of a bootstrapped IPS (BIPS) test, we find that the...

In this paper we investigate the multi-period forecast performance of a number of empirical self exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models that have been proposed in the literature for modeling exchange rates and GNP, amongst other variables. An indicator of when such models are likely to...

The properties of Pearson’s goodness-of-fit test, as used in density forecast evaluation, income distribution analysis and elsewhere, are analysed. The components-of-chi-squared or “Pearson analog” tests of Anderson (1994) are shown to be less generally applicable than was originally...

This article introduces a new source of survey data, namely the Bank of England Survey of External Forecasters. The survey collects point and density forecasts of inflation and GDP growth, and hence offers the opportunity of constructing direct measures of uncertainty. We present a simple...