Showing 1 - 9 of 9
This paper uses a range of structural VARs to show that the response of US stock prices to fiscal shocks changed in 1980. Over the period 1955-1980 an expansionary spending or revenue shock was associated with modestly higher stock prices. After 1980, along with a decline in the fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011627039
This paper uses a panel Threshold VAR model to estimate the regime-dependent impact of oil shocks on stock prices. We find that an adverse oil supply shock has a negative effect on stock prices when oil inflation is low. In contrast, this impact is negligible in the regime characterised by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011895018
We use a simple New Keynesian model, with firm specific capital, non-zero steady-state inflation, long-run risks and Epstein-Zin preferences to study the volatility implications of a monetary policy shock. An unexpected increases in the policy rate by 150 basis points causes output and inflation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011389786
We use a factor model with stochastic volatility to decompose the time-varying variance of Macro economic and Financial variables into contributions from country-specific uncertainty and uncertainty common to all countries. We find that the common component plays an important role in driving the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011306276
We propose an extended time-varying parameter Vector Autoregression that allows for an evolving relationship between the variances of the shocks. Using this model, we show that the relationship between the conditional variance of GDP growth and the long-term interest rate has become weaker over...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011554403
develop an extended Factor Augmented VAR model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010472799
This paper evaluates the performance of a variety of structural VAR models in estimating the impact of credit supply shocks. Using a Monte-Carlo experiment, we show that identification based on sign and quantity restrictions and via external instruments is effective in recovering the underlying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010484833
Following Giraitis, Kapetanios, and Yates (2014b), this paper uses kernel methods to estimate a seven variable time-varying (TV) vector autoregressive (VAR) model on the data set constructed by Smets and Wouters (2007). We apply an indirect inference method to map from this TV VAR to time...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011405253
This paper identifies shocks to the Federal Reserve's inflation target as VAR innovations that make the largest contribution to future movements in long-horizon inflation expectations. The effectiveness of this scheme is documented via Monte-Carlo experiments. The estimated impulse responses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011671941