In market share analysis, it is well recognized that we have often inadmissible predicted marketshare, which means that some of predictors take the values outside the range [0, 1] and the totalsum of predicted shares is not always one, so called logical inconsistency. In this article, basedon...

Combined forecasts from a linear and a nonlinear model areinvestigated for timeseries with possibly nonlinear characteristics. The forecasts arecombined by aconstant coefficient regression method as well as a time varyingmethod. Thetime varying method allows for a locally (non)linear model....

This paper discusses a number of issues that will become increasingly important nowthat the concept of marginal external cost pricing becomes more likely to be implementedas a policy strategy in transport in reality. The first part of the paper deals with thelong-run efficiency of marginal...

In this paper we compare the predictive abilility of Stochastic Volatility (SV)models to that of volatility forecasts implied by option prices. We develop anSV model with implied volatility as an exogeneous var able in the varianceequation which facilitates the use of statistical tests for...

This paper studies the second-best problem where not all links of acongested transportation network can be tolled. The second-best taxrule for this problem is derived for general static networks, so thatthe solution presented is valid for any graph of the network, and forany set of tolling...

For several decades growth of traffic volumes has outstrippedinvestments inroad infrastructure. The result has been a relentless increase intrafficcongestion. This paper reviews the economic principles behindcongestionpricing in static and dynamic settings, which derive from thebenefits...

This paper considers the second-best problem where not all links of a congested transportation networkcan be tolled. The paper builds on earlier work, in which the second-best tax rule for this problem wasderived for general static networks, so that the solution presented is valid for any graph...

In this paper, a dynamic model of road traffic congestion is presented, with an elastic overall demand for morning peak road usage, and with the congestion technology used being 'flow congestion'. It is demonstrated that in such a case, the optimal time-varying toll should include a 'flat',...

In this paper, we investigate congestion caused by differences in desired or possible speeds. Especially outside peak hours, speed differences are probably one of the most important reasons for congestion. Although the model setting, with one lane and no overtaking, may seem simple at first...