Combined forecasts from a linear and a nonlinear model areinvestigated for timeseries with possibly nonlinear characteristics. The forecasts arecombined by aconstant coefficient regression method as well as a time varyingmethod. Thetime varying method allows for a locally (non)linear model....

This paper discusses a number of issues that will become increasingly important nowthat the concept of marginal external cost pricing becomes more likely to be implementedas a policy strategy in transport in reality. The first part of the paper deals with thelong-run efficiency of marginal...

Pure time series-based tests fail to find empirical support formonetary exchange rate models. In this paper we apply pooled timeseries estimation on a forward-looking monetary model, resulting inparameter estimates which are in compliance with the underlyingtheory. Based on a panel version of...

In this paper, we make use of state space models to investigate the presence of stochastic trends in economic time series. A model is specified where such a trend can enter either in the autoregressive representation or in a separate state equation. Tests based on the former are analogous to...

This paper studies the second-best problem where not all links of acongested transportation network can be tolled. The second-best taxrule for this problem is derived for general static networks, so thatthe solution presented is valid for any graph of the network, and forany set of tolling...

In this paper we introduce the STAR-STGARCH model that can characterizenonlinear behaviour both in the conditional mean and the conditionalvariance. A modelling cycle for this family of models, consisting ofspecification, estimation, and evaluation stages is constructed.Misspecification tests...

For several decades growth of traffic volumes has outstrippedinvestments inroad infrastructure. The result has been a relentless increase intrafficcongestion. This paper reviews the economic principles behindcongestionpricing in static and dynamic settings, which derive from thebenefits...

We advocate the use of absolute moment ratio statistics in conjunctionwith standard variance ratio statistics in order to disentangle lineardependence, non-linear dependence, and leptokurtosis in financial timeseries. Both statistics are computed for multiple return horizonssimultaneously, and...

This paper considers the second-best problem where not all links of a congested transportation networkcan be tolled. The paper builds on earlier work, in which the second-best tax rule for this problem wasderived for general static networks, so that the solution presented is valid for any graph...