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Different theories of expectation formation and learning usually yield different outcomes for realized market prices in … dynamic models. The purpose of this paper is to investigate expectation formation and learning in a controlled experimental … from individual expectations. Subjects have no information about underlying market equilibrium equations, but can learn by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325029
This essay links some of my own work on expectations, learning and bounded rationality to the inspiring ideas of Jean …-Michel Grandmont. In particular, my work on consistent expectations and behavioral learning equilibria may be seen as formalizations of … JMG's ideas of self-fulfilling mistakes. Some of our learning-to-forecast laboratory experiments with human subjects have …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011662516
interest rates, inflation and inflation expectations. Average-inflation targeting can approximate the price path observed under … policy rule. In particular, if the central bank considers more than two lags, subjects fail to form expectations that are … target helps somewhat anchor longrun inflation expectations. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012797239
Biased longevity expectations will lead to suboptimal decisions regarding saving, retirement, annuitization and health …, with consequences for wellbeing in old age. Systematic differences in the accuracy of longevity expectations may partly … veracity of expectations are due to the less educated and cognitively able responding less to changes in objective mortality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011288406
nothing) or the highest level of punishment (destroyeverything). (4) Expectations have a significant effect on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324423
We investigate expectation formation in a controlled experimental en-vironment. Subjects are asked to predict the price in a standard asset pricingmodel. They do not have knowledge of the underlying market equilibrium equa-tions, but they know all past realized prices and their own predictions....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324831
investment and investment in energy saving technologies,using subjective evaluations of expectations and uncertainty of Dutch …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324949
-report measures were related to destruction decisions and expectations. The pattern of emotional arousal and its correlation with self …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325363
expectations. We provide ample anecdotal, historical, and heuristic information on the goodness-of-fit of the various exchange rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325398
whether therelated expectations and realizations match each other. We use theDutch Social Economic Panel survey data, where … expectations aboutthe next year's financial situation are reported. We show that realizedchanges exceed expectations, and that this … distribution of expectations andrealizations, suggest that individuals around retirement are overly pes-simistic and attach more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325606