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Trade and Growth under Limited Liberalization

Bakanova, Marina; de Souza, Lúcio Vinhas - 2002

This paper studies the connection between trade and growth in the context of a partial and inconsistent liberalization process in a specific Eastern European country in transition towards market economy, namely, the Republic of Belarus. The analysis of the country trade patterns during the USSR...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324938

Empirical Relevance of the Hillman Condition and Comparative Advantage

Hinloopen, Jeroen; van Marrewijk, Charles - 2004

We analyze the empirical violation of the Hillman condition, a necessary and sufficient condition for the correspondence between comparative advantage and pre-trade relative prices. Our comprehensive data set allows us to investigate the Hillman condition for virtually all countries of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325500

Assessing the Impact of Trade Policy on Labor Markets and Production

Francois, Joseph - 2004

This paper discusses the measurement of production and employment effects of trade policy, and more broadly the effects of economic integration and globalization. First, it provides a broad-brush overview of the ex-post literature linking trade to performance, such as measures of worker...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325413

Regulated Efficiency, World Trade Organization Accession, and the Motor Vehicle Sector in China

Francois, Joseph F.; Spinanger, Dean - 2004

This paper is concerned with the interaction of regulated efficiency and World Trade Organization (WTO) accession and its impact on China’s motor vehicle sector. The analysis is conducted using a 23 sector–25 region computable general equilibrium model. Regulatory reform and internal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325575

Trade Policy Options of Ukraine: East or West

Mikolajun, Irena; Paap, Richard; Viaene, Jean-Marie; … - 2016

the gravity model of trade using alternative estimation approaches that account for zeros in trade: Heckman, Poisson …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011526134

The Institutional Determinants of Bilateral Trade Patterns

de Groot, Henri L.F.; Linders, Gert-Jan; Rietveld, Piet; … - 2003

This paper studies the effect of institutions on trade flows, using a gravity modelapproach. We start from a standard … gravity equation that incorporates geographical proximity,language, trade policy and common history. These factors reflect the … extends the gravity equation to include proxies forinstitutional quality and institutional homogeneity between trade partners …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324988

Fractional Cointegration Rank Estimation

Lasak, Katarzyna; Velasco, Carlos - 2014

We consider cointegration rank estimation for a p-dimensional Fractional Vector Error Correction Model. We propose a new two-step procedure which allows testing for further long-run equilibrium relations with possibly different persistence levels. The first step consists in estimating the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377205

Return and Risk of Pairs Trading using a Simulation-based Bayesian Procedure for Predicting Stable Ratios of Stock Prices

Gatarek, Lukasz; Hoogerheide, Lennart; van Dijk, Herman K. - 2014

In this paper we consider two cases of pairs trading strategies: a conditional statistical arbitrage method and an implicit statistical arbitrage method. We use a simulation-based Bayesian procedure for predicting stable ratios, defined in a cointegration model, of pairs of stock prices. We show...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377207

Interpreting Financial Market Crashes as Earthquakes: A New early Warning System for Medium Term Crashes

Gresnigt, Francine; Kole, Erik; Franses, Philip Hans - 2014

We propose a modeling framework which allows for creating probability predictions on a future market crash in the medium term, like sometime in the next five days. Our framework draws upon noticeable similarities between stock returns around a financial market crash and seismic activity around...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010377219

Joint Bayesian Analysis of Parameters and States in Nonlinear, Non-Gaussian State Space Models

Barra, István; Hoogerheide, Lennart; Koopman, Siem Jan; … - 2014

We propose a new methodology for designing flexible proposal densities for the joint posterior density of parameters and states in a nonlinear non-Gaussian state space model. We show that a highly efficient Bayesian procedure emerges when these proposal densities are used in an independent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491347