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Optimal Confidence Intervals for the Tail Index and High Quantiles

Ferreira, Ana; de Vries, Casper G. - 2004

The aim of the paper is to obtain confidence intervals for the tail index and high quantiles taking into account the optimal rate of convergence of the estimator. The common approach to obtaining confidence intervals presented in the literature is to use the normal distribution approximation at...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325182

Confidence Intervals in High-Dimensional Regression Based on Regularized Pseudoinverses

Boot, Tom; Nibbering, Didier - 2017

In modern data sets, the number of available variables can greatly exceed the number of observations. In this paper we show how valid confidence intervals can be constructed by approximating the inverse covariance matrix by a scaled Moore-Penrose pseudoinverse, and using the lasso to perform a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011662530

Weighted-average least squares (WALS): Confidence and prediction intervals

De Luca, Giuseppe; Magnus, Jan R.; Peracchi, Franco - 2021

We extend the results of De Luca et al. (2021) to inference for linear regression models based on weighted-average least squares (WALS), a frequentist model averaging approach with a Bayesian flavor. We concentrate on inference about a single focus parameter, interpreted as the causal effect of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012606004

Are Entrepreneurs more Optimistic and Overconfident than Managers and Employees?

Koudstaal, Martin; Sloof, Randolph; van Praag, Mirjam - 2015

entrepreneurs, managers and employees on a comprehensive set of measures of optimism and overconfidence (n = 2,058). The results … when bad events occur. For incentivized measures of overconfidence we find no difference between entrepreneurs and managers … than successful managers. We conclude that optimism and overconfidence are indeed characteristics of entrepreneurs, but …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011403578

A Simple Model of Self-Assessments

Martinez, Silvia Dominguez; Swank, Otto H. - 2006

We develop a simple model that describes individuals’ self-assessments oftheir abilities. We assume that individuals learn about their abilities from appraisalsof others and experience. Our model predicts that if communicationis imperfect, then (i) appraisals of others tend to be too positive,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325242

Sharing Information through Delegation and Collaboration

Swank, Otto H.; Visser, Bauke - 2004

This article analyzes under which conditions a manager can motivate a junior worker by verbal communication, and explains why communication is often tied up with organizational choices as job enlargement and collaboration. Our model has two important features. First, the manager has more...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325390

Self-Confidence and Strategic Deterrence

Charness, Gary; Rustichini, Aldo; van de Ven, Jeroen - 2011

We examine factors that may contribute to 'overconfidence' in relative ability on an intelligence test. We test … an equilibrium strategy, providing a rationale for strategic overconfidence. …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326528

Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence

Magnus, Jan R.; Peresetsky, Anatoly A. - 2017

Overconfidence seems to be an essential aspect of human nature, and one way to study overconfidence is to consider … achievements; what remains can be interpreted as (over)confidence. In this paper we study overconfidence using a sample of about … students are overconfident, which is in agreement with what most people find. Less obvious findings are that overconfidence is …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011819447

Deception and Self-Deception

Schwardman, Peter; van der Weele, Joël - 2016

We experimentally investigate the determinants of overconfidence and test the hypothesis, advanced by Robert Trivers …, that overconfidence serves to more effectively persuade or deceive others. After performing a cognitively challenging task …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011451529

Gender and Redistribution: Experimental Evidence

Buser, Thomas; Putterman, Louis; van der Weele, Joël - 2016

Gender differences in voting patterns and political attitudes towards redistribution are well-documented. The experimental gender literature suggests several plausible behavioral explanations behind these differences, relating to gender differences in confidence concerning future relative income...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011526140