We analyze output growth risk with respect to financial conditions across U.S. manufacturing industries. Using a multi-level quantile regression approach, we find strong heterogeneity in growth risk, particularly between the more vulnerable durable goods sector and the more resilient nondurable...

We investigate actual capital chosen by banks in presence of capital minimum requirements and ex-post penalties for violating them. The model yields excess capital that is always positive and increases during times of distress in the economy, which is in line with empirical evidence. Next, we...

We forecast the term structure of U.S. Treasury zero-coupon bond yields by analyzing a range of models that have been used in the literature. We assess the relevance of parameter uncertainty by examining the added value of using Bayesian inference compared to frequentist estimation techniques,...

This paper uses monthly data from April 2005 to August 2013 for Taiwan to propose a novel tourism indicator, namely the Tourism Conditions Index (TCI). TCI accounts for the spillover weights based on the Granger causality test and estimates of the multivariate BEKK model for four TCI indicators...

The paper uses monthly data on tourism related factors from April 2005 - June 2016 for Taiwan that applies factor analysis and Chang’s (2015) novel approach for constructing a tourism financial indicator, namely the Tourism Financial Conditions Index (TFCI). The TFCI is an adaptation and...

The paper uses monthly data on financial stock index returns, tourism stock sub-index returns, effective exchange rate returns and interest rate differences from April 2005 - August 2013 for Taiwan that applies Chang's (2014) novel approach for constructing a tourism financial indicator, namely...

This paper employs Vector Autoregression (VAR) models to measure the impact of monetary policy shocks on regional output in Indonesia. Having incorporated a possible structural break following the aftermath of the 1997-98 Asian Crisis, the impulse response functions derived from the estimated...

This paper employs Vector Autoregression (VAR) models to measure the impact of monetary policy shocks on regional output in Indonesia. Having incorporated a possible structural break following the aftermath of the 1997-98 Asian Crisis, the impulse response functions derived from the estimated...

This paper shows that the parsimoniously time-varying methodology of Callot and Kristensen (2015) can be applied to factor models. We apply this method to study macroeconomic instability in the US from 1959:1 to 2006:4 with a particular focus on the Great Moderation. Models with parsimoniously...

This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...