This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...

This paper investigates business cycle relations among different economies in theEuro area. Cyclical dynamics are explicitly modelled as part of a time series model. Weintroduce mechanisms that allow for increasing or diminishing phase shifts and for time-varyingassociation patterns in different...

The first three factors resulting from a principal components analysis of term structure data are in the literature typically interpreted as driving the level, slope and curvature of the term structure. Using slight generalisations of theorems from total positivity, we present sufficient...

The Algarve region in Portugal is often considered as one of the most appealing regions for tourism in the country. Its attractive location and moderate climate have since the mid-1960s brought increasing economic prosperity. As a result of the development of mass tourism, available land-use...

We propose a new and simple methodology to estimate the loss function associated with experts' forecasts. Under the assumption of conditional normality of the data and the forecast distribution, the asymmetry parameter of the lin-lin and linex loss function can easily be estimated using a linear...

Syndicated loan data provided by DealScan is an essential input in banking research. This data is rich enough to answer urging questions on bank lending, e.g., in the presence of financial shocks or climate change. However, many data options raise the question of how to choose the estimation...

We propose a new and simple methodology to estimate the loss function associated with experts' forecasts. Under the assumption of conditional normality of the data and the forecast distribution, the asymmetry parameter of the lin-lin and linex loss function can easily be estimated using a linear...

The Algarve region in Portugal is often considered as one of the most appealing regions for tourism in the country. Its attractive location and moderate climate have since the mid-1960s brought increasing economic prosperity. As a result of the development of mass tourism, available land-use...

This article generalises the results of Saïdi and Zakoian (2006) to a considerably larger class of nonlinear ARCH models with discontinuities, leverage effects and robust news impact curves. We propose a new method of proof for the existence of a strictly stationary and phi-mixing solution....