Showing 1 - 7 of 7
frequency and the panel of macroeconomic variables is at a high frequency, we can use our approach for both nowcasting and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326452
been satisfactorily answered. We focus on out-of-sample nowcasting, and extend the Bayesian Structural Time Series model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012114774
-noise dynamic factor models, commonly used in macroeconomic forecasting and nowcasting. We show analytically and in Monte Carlo … estimation accuracy. Modestly increasing the noise level also accelerates convergence. A nowcasting exercise of euro area GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014321791
The multivariate analysis of a panel of economic and financial time series with mixed frequencies is a challenging problem. The standard solution is to analyze the mix of monthly and quarterly time series jointly by means of a multivariate dynamic model with a monthly time index: artificial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491332
This paper explores the determinants of deviations of ex-post budget outcomes from first-release outcomes published towards the end of the year of budget implementation. The predictive content of the first-release outcomes is important, because these figures are an input for the next budget and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325661
Federal Reserve nonborrowed reserve supply systematically responded to changes in inflation and in the output gap over the period 1969-2000. While the feedback from output gap is always negative, the response of money supply to changes in inflation varies considerably across time. Nonborrowed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010325981
We introduce a Combined Density Nowcasting (CDN) approach to Dynamic Factor Models (DFM) that in a coherent way … nowcasts. The combination weights are latent random variables that depend on past nowcasting performance and other learning …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491381