This paper introduces a novel score-driven dynamic factor model designed for filtering cross-sectional co-movements in panels of time series. The model is formulated using elliptical distribution for the noise terms, thus allowing the update of the time-varying parameter to be potentially...

The relative magnitudes are compared of successive terms in a higher-order asymptotic expansion of the bias of the LSDV estimator in dynamic panels. We find that the leading term accounts for the major part of the actual bias in small samples. This implies that bias correction procedures can be...

This paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components...

Although the main interest in the modelling of electricity prices is often on volatility aspects, we argue that stochastic heteroskedastic behaviour in prices can only be modelled correctly when the conditional mean of the time series is properly modelled. In this paper we consider different...

TSMod is an interactive program which allows the user to estimate a broad range of univariate models. This review describes the possibilities of the package, from a user's perspective and with a secondary focus on the numerical accuracy of the program.

We consider eight different measures (issued amount, coupon, listed, age, missingprices, price volatility, number of contributors and yield dispersion) to approximate corporatebond liquidity and use a five-variable model to control for maturity, credit and currencydifferences between bonds. The...

This paper puts forward a method to estimate average economic growth, andits associated confidence bounds, which does not require a formal decision onpotential unit root properties. The method is based on the analysis of eitherdifference-stationary or trend-stationary time series models,...

We value rating-triggered step-up bonds with three methods: (i) the Jarrow, Lando andTurnbull (1997, JLT) framework, (ii) a similar framework using historical probabilities and(iii) as plain vanilla bonds. We find that the market seems to value single step-up bondsaccording to the JLT model,...

Convergence in gross domestic product series of five European countriesis empirically identified using multivariate time series models that arebased on unobserved components with dynamic converging properties.We define convergence in terms of a decrease in dispersion over timeand model this...

This paper investigates business cycle relations among different economies in theEuro area. Cyclical dynamics are explicitly modelled as part of a time series model. Weintroduce mechanisms that allow for increasing or diminishing phase shifts and for time-varyingassociation patterns in different...