Showing 1 - 10 of 141
We present a new procedure for detecting multiple additive outliers in GARCH(1,1) models at unknown dates. The outlier … presence and timing of an outlier. Next, a second test determines the type of additive outlier (volatility or level). The tests … alternative methods, especially when it comes to determining the date of the outlier. We apply the method to returns of the Dow …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005144394
We present a new procedure for detecting multiple additive outliers in GARCH(1,1) models at unknown dates. The outlier … presence and timing of an outlier. Next, a second test determines the type of additive outlier (volatility or level). The tests … methods, especially when it comes to determining the date of the outlier. We apply the method to returns of the Dow Jones …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257361
This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009369369
This paper provides a new way of analyzing tenure profiles in wages, by modelling simultaneously the evolution of wages and the distribution of tenures. Starting point is the observation that within-job log wages for an individual can be described by random walk. We develop a theoretical model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005137337
This paper develops a Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model that allows for imperfect synchronization of cyclical regimes in multiple variables, due to phase shifts of a single common cycle. The model has three key features: (i) the amount of phase shift can be different across regimes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008838640
This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markov switching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with ‘mild’ and ‘severe’...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011256392
This paper develops a Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model that allows for imperfect synchronization of cyclical regimes in multiple variables, due to phase shifts of a single common cycle. The model has three key features: (i) the amount of phase shift can be different across regimes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257049
We present a simple new methodology to allow for time variation in volatilities using a recursive updating scheme similar to the familiar RiskMetrics approach. We update parameters using the score of the forecasting distribution rather than squared lagged observations. This allows the parameter...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257169
This paper provides a new way of analyzing tenure profiles in wages, by modelling simultaneously the evolution of wages and the distribution of tenures. Starting point is the observation that within-job log wages for an individual can be described by random walk. We develop a theoretical model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011257607
Actual portfolios contain fewer stocks than are implied by standard financial analysis that balances the costs of diversification against the benefits in terms of the standard deviation of the returns. Suppose a safety first investor cares about downside risk and recognizes the heavytail feature...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011255679